SPC AC 310624
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   TEXAS....WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM TX TO SERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND WRN PARTS OF MO AND AR...
   
   ...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ACTIVE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
   ONTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS NEXT TROUGH...A VIGOROUS
   MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME
   PROVINCES THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE ERN SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING
   PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND WWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
   THE ARKLATEX EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
   
   AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS AND DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW
   INCREASES OVER THE REGION...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD ACROSS
   OK/KS DURING THE DAY AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER
   SRN CO. AS THIS OCCURS...DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP EAST FROM WRN
   PORTIONS KS/OK/TX INTO RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NWD
   ACROSS THE  PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW
   TRACKS ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NRN KS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
   NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG DRYLINE DEVELOPS EAST INTO MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX TO CNTRL OK/KS.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   FORECAST SCENARIO APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER DAY 3
   OUTLOOK...A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME WARM FRONT/DRYLINE SCENARIO IS
   INDICATED OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG
   DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS
   SUPPORTED BY WEAK LLJ DIRECTED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   AS WARM SECTOR EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY IT
   APPEARS THAT LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
   J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF
   SWRN/SCNTRL KS BY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODEST CAPPING IS INDICATED IN
   BOTH NAMKF AND NAM-WRF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT ALL RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT DURING THE
   01/21Z-02/00Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN OVERALL
   PATTERN AND ANTICIPATED HEATING/FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.
   
   EXPECT STORMS TO ERUPT WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXTREMELY
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW
   TOPPED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
   THE WARM FRONT OVER SCNTRL KS/NWRN OK. TORNADOES...AND VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND HIGH WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER
   SOUTH...FROM NWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...SOMEWHAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE
   FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OFFSET BY GREATER INSTABILITY TO
   SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
   ATTENDANT THREATS OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS WITH ACTIVITY BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG
   FORCING AND SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MO VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
   NIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME BUT STILL POSING
   AT LEAST A HAIL THREAT AS FAR AS SWRN IA AND WRN MO INTO EARLY
   SUNDAY.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN
   THE DAY...AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL
   HEATING AND LOW TO MID 50S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT
   IN MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
   VALLEY...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA.
   FORCING APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS
   ON THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER
   SUPPORTING UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. RESULTING STORM MOTION AND AMBIENT
   FLOW SUGGEST WIND GUSTS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MAY BE IN THE RANGE
   OF 40-50KT. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/31/2006
   
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