Apr 1, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 1 17:13:40 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060401 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060401 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 011711
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CST SAT APR 01 2006
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IA...MO AND MUCH
   OF IL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
   THE MID SOUTH AND ARKLATEX...
   
   --POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS BEING FORECAST
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT--
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN
   WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
   SUNDAY MORNING...PRIOR TO INTENSIFYING INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION
   OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...ACCOMPANYING
   MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROUGH
   BASE INTO MO AND IL/IND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NEB WILL
   DEVELOP ENEWD INTO LOWER MI BY MONDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM
   FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
   LAKES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO
   AND MS VALLEYS AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.
   
   ...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MID MS AND OH
   VALLEYS...
   
   A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
   ONGOING 02/12Z FROM VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA
   INTO WRN KY AND MIDDLE TN...LARGELY DRIVEN BY WAA ALONG BROAD SWLY
   LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
   RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
   CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 7-8 C/KM / COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES INCREASING
   TO 1500-2500 J/KG FROM SERN SE/CNTRL MO SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
   LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND EXIT
   REGIONS OF ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
   SURFACE LOW OVER WRN OR CNTRL IA SWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO MO. 
   ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME
   ALONG WARM FRONT.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
   INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
   TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. WITH TIME...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A
   MESOSCALE LEWP STRUCTURE WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE
   EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...MID SOUTH INTO ARKLATEX...
   
   AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
   A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER.  GIVEN A STRONGER CAP AND THAT LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO
   WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
   EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS REGION.  LATEST
   SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
   SWWD ALONG FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE CONFLUENCE
   OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS INTO PORTIONS OF ERN AR...WRN TN AND PERHAPS
   SWD INTO NRN LA AND NRN MS.
   
   THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 45-55 KT WLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
    THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS AND AL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/01/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z