SPC AC 251721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN AL...CNTRL AND SRN GA...SRN SC AND NRN FL...
   
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE SEWD AND MAY UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH
   THE TN VALLEY. EARLY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN
   LA NEWD THROUGH NERN AL AND INTO NRN GA...THEN SEWD AS A BACK DOOR
   FRONT ACROSS SC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE
   BOUNDARIES. SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY.
   HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES...AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAKLY
   CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
   BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP MUCH
   STRONGER KINEMATIC FIELDS BETWEEN 850 AND 550 MB ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
   GA...SC AND NRN FL AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD...WHILE THE
   NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A
   GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND EVENTS IF
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
   AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...WILL
   MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF IT
   BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER
   THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE
   NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/25/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z