SPC AC 082026
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   CORRECTED FOR NDFD PROBS
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR
   TUESDAY. DETAILS WITH REGARD TO WHERE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
   EVOLVE ARE NOT YET CLEAR. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
   INCREASE FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY
   AND EVENING TUESDAY.
   
   A NRN BRANCH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
   ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A NUMBER OF
   SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC
   FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MS VALLEY.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...VARIOUS MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE INTERSPERSED
   WITH SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONES FROM THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS NWD TO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
   AGREEMENT THAT ONE MCS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS EARLY TUESDAY
   WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF LEE-TROUGH AND SRN PLAINS COLD
   FRONT. ANOTHER MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS MN/WI
   NEAR A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEING EJECTED EWD AHEAD OF NEXT
   STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
   
   
   SYNOPTIC FRONTS WILL ALSO INCLUDE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
   MCS OVER ERN OK/OZARKS SEWD TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A SECONDARY COLD
   FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN BRANCH SYSTEM DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS
   THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
   
   LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL REINFORCE THE
   SRN PLAINS COLD FRONT FROM SERN CO TO THE NRN TX PNHDL AND INTO NWRN
   OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE ERN
   TX PNHDL AS TRIPLE POINT LOW EVOLVES ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK.
   STRENGTHENING MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
   FEATURES...COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD
   PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   MCS EVOLUTION ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL PLAY A
   SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SEVERE WEATHER FORMATION AND STORM MODE ACROSS
   PARTS OF OK AND AR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE MCS HAS
   YET TO FORM...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MAY
   BE QUITE STRONG WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...A LOWER
   CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUGGESTS MAINTAINING ONLY A SLGT RISK AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT AN MCS OR TWO WILL BE ONGOING OVER
   THE MID-MS VLY SWWD INTO THE OZARKS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
   REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN OK SEWD ACROSS SRN AR.
   DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE MCS...AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE
   TN VALLEY...COULD RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING... OR
   REDEVELOPING...EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. DAMAGING
   WINDS...SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   THE SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AS CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG SWLY
   LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT VERY UNSTABLE PARCELS ACROSS THE COLD
   POOL...AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST
   ACROSS PARTS OF AR DURING THE MORNING.
   
   SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING IN WAKE OF THE MCS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS TX/OK THROUGH THE
   DAY WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION OCCURRING BY AFTERNOON
   ALONG/NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW...ACROSS WRN AR TO NRN OK. A
   SECONDARY AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE COLD
   FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...OR NORTH OF THESE FEATURES WHERE
   INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM AMPLIFYING FLOW/HEIGHT FALLS
   WILL OVERCOME INHIBITION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/ERN OK
   AND PERHAPS WRN AR...WHERE POST-OUTFLOW/FRONT ELY FLOW WILL RESULT
   IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH ALONG ADVANCING DRYLINE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
   ISOLATED GIVEN STRONG CAP AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING.
   
   EXPECT SEVERAL TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS/S TUE
   NIGHT/EARLY WED...PROBABLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...AND
   FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS OK AND NRN TX. GIVEN AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THESE STORMS...THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS
   MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...UPPER MS VLY...
   IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RECOVER
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VLY.
   RESIDUAL SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL BE WEAK AND GIVEN NATURE OF FORCING...EVOLUTION INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS IS LIKELY. A COUPLE OF DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO WANE DURING
   THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/08/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z