SPC AC 130602
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
   AND VICINITY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX/SERN
   NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN -- FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
   CONUS AND A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST -- IS FORECAST TO
   UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN
   GENERALLY UNCHANGED.
   
   SURFACE FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES
   SWWD/WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO TX...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST/SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST/SWWD INTO
   FAR W TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...THE CAROLINAS AND VICINITY...
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  CONVECTION SHOULD
   INCREASE/INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING -- LIKELY
   LIMITED BY ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- RESULTS IN LIMITED
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.
   
   WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EXPECTED
   ACROSS THIS REGION/S OF UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS --
   POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE -- TO EVOLVE.  POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH
   ATTM TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ...PARTS OF WRN TX/SERN NM...
   MODELS FORECAST ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR FRONT DURING THE
   START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN RE-INITIATE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
   OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO TX...AREA OF SLIGHTLY
   GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS W TX.  AS FRONT MOVES
   SWD/SWWD ACROSS TX...AREA OF ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
   THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND INTO SERN NM.  WITH MODERATE WSWLY FLOW
   ALOFT FORECAST OVER THIS REGION...RESULTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   HAIL...DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/13/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z