SPC AC 241728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL
DEEPEN AND DIG SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN LOWERED HEIGHTS AND THE MEAN TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE NATION. AN UPPER RIDGES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE WEST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...MOVES WNWWD TOWARD FL/GA.
AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE
APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THEN WWD INTO SRN
TX. A STRONGER COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PUSH EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
...IA/IL MO REGION...
500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -14C TO -16C COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THOUGH NLY
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 700 MB WILL RESULT IN WEAK
CONVERGENCE...LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS/SEVERE
HAIL...THOUGH 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM.
...SERN UNITED STATES NEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC COAST...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG DIFFUSE FRONT AND BROAD FLOW OF MID/HIGH MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NWD AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE... SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90 SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY. THE SSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
DUE TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE WEAK
BANDS/LINES OF CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPORADIC WET
DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO FL/GA...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
...ERN NM EWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK...
UPSLOPE ELY BOUNDARY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...
LOCATED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NM DURING THE DAY. THE ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEERING TO NWLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR STORMS TO
POSSIBLY ROTATE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...SO ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
SWD MOVING FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY HELP INITIATE
STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 21-03Z. THE FORECAST WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
..IMY.. 06/24/2006
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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