SPC AC 250545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH A
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ASIDE FROM A
FEW STRONGER/SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES...THE ERN TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE.
LIKEWISE...SURFACE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN. SUBTROPICAL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALOFT WILL DRIFT NWD FROM N FL INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...WHILE WEAK SECONDARY LOW LINGERS INVOF THE TN/OH
VALLEYS. FURTHER W...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF STRONGER CANADIAN
LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO.
...TN/OH VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INVOF WEAK UPPER
LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MID
MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH. GIVEN
SEASONABLY-COOL /-12 TO -14 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN.
...E COAST STATES FROM VA SWD TO NRN FL...
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE ANTICIPATED
N/NE OF NWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW. WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...A COUPLE OF WET MICROBURSTS OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO ANTICIPATED LACK OF
INSTABILITY.
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH
MODERATE /30 TO 35 KT/ NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION S OF
CANADIAN TROUGH...A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
...NM...
WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF NM BENEATH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING SSEWD WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
NNWLY FLOW AROUND/E OF UPPER HIGH. WITH MARGINAL AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
-- BOTH IN UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM AS WELL AS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT...20 TO 25 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A STRONGER CELL
OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL.
..GOSS.. 06/25/2006
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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