Jun 25, 2006 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 25 06:04:45 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060625 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060625 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 250545
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH A
   LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  ASIDE FROM A
   FEW STRONGER/SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES...THE ERN TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
   RELATIVELY WEAK DESPITE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE.
   
   LIKEWISE...SURFACE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN.  SUBTROPICAL
   LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALOFT WILL DRIFT NWD FROM N FL INTO THE
   COASTAL CAROLINAS...WHILE WEAK SECONDARY LOW LINGERS INVOF THE TN/OH
   VALLEYS.  FURTHER W...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE
   NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF STRONGER CANADIAN
   LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO.
   
   ...TN/OH VALLEYS...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INVOF WEAK UPPER
   LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MID
   MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH.  GIVEN 
   SEASONABLY-COOL /-12 TO -14 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
   CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
   CIRCULATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN.
   
   ...E COAST STATES FROM VA SWD TO NRN FL...
   DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE ANTICIPATED
   N/NE OF NWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW.  WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE AN AREA OF
   RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...A COUPLE OF WET MICROBURSTS OR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. 
   OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO ANTICIPATED LACK OF
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
   THOUGH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
   DESTABILIZATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  WITH
   MODERATE /30 TO 35 KT/ NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION S OF
   CANADIAN TROUGH...A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ...NM...
   WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF
   OF NM BENEATH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING SSEWD WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC
   NNWLY FLOW AROUND/E OF UPPER HIGH.  WITH MARGINAL AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   -- BOTH IN UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM AS WELL AS OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   THREAT...20 TO 25 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A STRONGER CELL
   OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/25/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z