SPC AC 290559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME THIS PERIOD...AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WRN RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED BY NUMEROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD WITHIN BELT OF WLY FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA/THE NRN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
THOUGH AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. OTHER/POST-FRONTAL STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX.
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION/DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT REMAINS A QUESTION
ATTM...AS IT APPEARS THAT NAM IS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S SEEM OVERDONE -- AND THUS EXPECT
INSTABILITY TO BE LESS THAN FORECAST AND CAP TO BE STRONGER.
NONETHELESS...AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS...AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
AREA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND/SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS 40
KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...WITH SEVERE
THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES.
...THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW. THOUGH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE PERIOD...PRESENCE OF UPPER COLD POOL AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN LOCAL AREAS OF DESTABILIZATION. THUS --
EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL OR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..GOSS.. 06/29/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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