SPC AC 151730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE/ELONGATED W-E UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE FAST BELT OF WLY/ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALONG
THE U.S/CANADA BORDER N OF THE RIDGE. WITH VERY WARM/CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SRN FRINGE OF FAST WLY FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER FEATURES MOVING W-E WITHIN THIS BELT OF FAST
FLOW. THOUGH AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THIS
REGION...WARM LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A CAP WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH POCKETS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED/AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS -- PRESUMABLY NEAR STRONGER UPPER FEATURES
EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF WLYS...STRENGTH OF UPPER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH A DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
LIKELY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. WITH DEGREE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN QUESTION ATTM...AND WITH LOCATIONS OF POTENTIALLY-GREATER STORM
DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A LOW-END
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT LACK OF INSTABILITY TO LIMIT
THREAT...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OF WEAK UPPER
FEATURE SUGGEST MAINTAINING ONLY 5% SEVERE THREAT ATTM.
...AZ...
ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AZ AS THIS REGION REMAINS
S OF RIDGE AXIS. AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UPPER WAVES WITHIN
ELY FLOW WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SUBSEQUENT WWD MOVEMENT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS ABOVE DEEP MIXED
LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE SRN HALF
OF THE STATE -- ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
..GOSS.. 07/15/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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