SPC AC 110546
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED OCT 11 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITION UNDERWAY...RESULTING IN
DEEP...COLD...CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED/INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SWEEP EWD
ACROSS TIDEWATER...MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS DURING
PERIOD...SEWD OVER FL...AND SWD ACROSS S TX INTO NWRN GULF. FARTHER
W...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ARC AROUND NRN SEMICIRCLE OF CUT-OFF
CYCLONE NOW RETROGRADING OFF CA COAST.
...NERN CONUS...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT
ACROSS THIS REGION...PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO SUPPORT
NARROW/LOW-TOPPED BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO NEUTRAL INSTABILITY. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IN AREAS OF OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE VERY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING BUOYANCY. SVR POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...S TX...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON LOCATION OF COLD
FRONT...WITH SPECTRAL SOLUTION SLOWEST AND LEAST PROBABLE GIVEN
AMBIENT PATTERN. EXPECT FRONT TO SURGE SWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL...SERN
AND DEEP S TX DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. SUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SHOULD OCCUR DURING DAY-1...IN WAKE OF
ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING NWRN GULF...TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR FRONT DAY-2. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE WEAK...LIMITING
HODOGRAPH SIZE...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE UNDERCUT RATHER QUICKLY
GIVEN REASONABLE PROGS OF CAA/PRESSURE RISES TO ITS N...BUT
SUFFICIENT HEATING IS POSSIBLE FOR WARM SECTOR STORMS TO FORM AS
WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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