SPC AC 131719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO SRN CA
LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS SATURDAY ON THE WRN EDGE OF A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED OVER THE SERN U.S. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE 50S F FROM WEST TX EXTENDING WWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIKELY RESULTING IN
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DIFFER IN THE SPEED OF THE
UPPER-LOW...BOTH SOLUTIONS SPREAD A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
SUGGESTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INCREASE
VERTICAL SHEAR AS A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT
MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH
SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
ALTHOUGH THE HAIL THREAT OVER THE SWRN STATES SHOULD BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE AFTERNOON...THE THREAT MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AFTER DARK AS ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP DUE TO THE BAND OF
STRONG ASCENT AND INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.
..BROYLES.. 10/13/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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