SPC AC 070524
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST WED DEC 06 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BUT...AS A SIGNIFICANT
EMBEDDED IMPULSE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. AND...A MORE
COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATION. WITHIN THIS REGIME...AMPLIFICATION IS PROGGED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...WITHIN A STRONGER BELT OF FLOW BEGINNING TO NOSE
INTO CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST. SYSTEM MAY STILL BE
FAIRLY VIGOROUS OFFSHORE AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND...TOWARD A BROADER SCALE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE AXIS.
...EAST OF ROCKIES...
LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
A STABLE STRATIFICATION...AND A NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
...WEST OF ROCKIES...
AN INITIALLY DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES
...AND MOST OF THE WEST...WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ONLY IN THE -20 TO -22 C RANGE...WITHIN MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
OF SYSTEM...DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN
RISK INLAND...ACROSS AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA.
..KERR.. 12/07/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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