SPC AC 290530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...
...LWR MS VLY...
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS IT DOES...A BAND OF 80-100 KT H5 FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE FROM E TX EWD TO THE LWR MS/OH VLYS AND MID-SOUTH BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...THE PRIMARY LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND LIFT NWD
FROM WRN OK TO KS DURING THE PERIOD. TRAILING THE LOW...A FRONT
WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS TX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND REACH CNTRL
MO...WRN TN...AND WRN AL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD FROM THE WRN GULF STATES INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH DURING
THE AFTN SATURDAY.
STRONG LOW-/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE 50+ KT
SLY LLJ/WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS A LARGE PART OF ERN TX/LWR MS VLY NWD
INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF CONVECTION/TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ONGOING
AT 12Z SATURDAY FROM OK/KS SWD INTO E TX/WRN LA. NRN EXTENT OF THIS
LINE SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY
AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NEWD.
TO THE S...DESPITE THE RAPID ADVECTION OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN RATHER POOR...DUE IN PART TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER LOW
N OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE OVERALL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
COLUMN WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MLCAPES AOB 400-500 J/KG.
NONETHELESS... TAIL END OF THE MORNING SQUALL LINE MAY
REGENERATE/INTENSIFY DURING SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS SRN/ERN LA AND SRN
MS WHERE A MODEST WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF
THE LA/MS COASTLINE. KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH
300-500 M2/S2 SRH AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ANY STRONGER
SFC BASED STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SUPERCELLULAR WITH A TORNADO OR
TWO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS MAY EVOLVE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MS AND INTO WRN AL AND THE
WRN FL PNHDL AFTER DARK. THE STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH EWD
EXTENT GIVEN THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER STATIC STABILITY ACROSS THE
SERN STATES.
..RACY.. 12/29/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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