Jan 4, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Wed Jan 4 07:03:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 040702 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PROGRESSES OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THROUGH THE BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM. THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY EVEN SHARPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BEFORE ITS AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER DEVELOPMENTS WILL ALLOW BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH SURFACE FRONT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. ..KERR.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |