SPC AC 270720
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CST MON MAR 27 2006
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NW TX...WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   TWO PERTURBATIONS NOW MERGING OVER NERN PACIFIC -- INVOF 145W --
   WILL DEVELOP INTO HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE
   DAY-2 OVER CA COAST.  LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-3 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AS THIS
   FEATURE MOVES ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.  NARROW
   PLUME OF FORMER CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR NOW MODIFYING OVER WRN GULF
   SHOULD BE ADVECTED NNWWD THEN NWD ACROSS REGION DAY-3.
   
   OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...ETA...CMC...UKMET...ECMWF...AS WELL AS GREAT
   MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM ETA/ETA-KF/SPECTRAL/WRF ARE ALL
   RATHER CONSISTENT -- BOTH WITH TIMING OF MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND WITH
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH OVER
   NM BY 30/12Z.  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MAY BE FCST TOO FAR N BY
   EUROPEAN PROGS GIVEN THIS UPPER AIR SCENARIO...WITH CENTRAL PLAINS
   CYCLOGENESIS MORE PROBABLE.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   CONDITIONAL AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
   CAN FORM INVOF DRYLINE...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...STRONG
   CAPPING MAY GREATLY LIMIT AND/OR PREVENT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. 
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE WITH TIME
   THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS REGION...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   FAVORABLE FOR SVR AS MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL
   GRADIENTS APCH.  MOISTURE WILL BE WEAKER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
   COMPARED TO FARTHER S BECAUSE OF MORE INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED GULF
   TRAJECTORIES...AS WELL AS RELATED LIKELIHOOD OF MORE DAMAGE TO
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FIELD FROM DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.
   
   AFTER DARK...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED WITHIN
   BROADER/MRGL PROBABILITY AREA...PRIND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN W-CENTRAL TX
   AND NWRN OK.  IF STRONG CONSENSUS MODEL SCENARIO UNFOLDS WITH NM
   SPEED MAX...BAND OF INTENSE LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY MOVE ACROSS SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...AND ATOP WRN FRINGE OF FAVORABLY MOIST LLJ LATE IN
   PERIOD...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF
   TSTMS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/27/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z