SPC AC 290806
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TN TO OH/PA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. 
   STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW NOW OVER NRN CA
   SHOULD DEEPEN OVER GREAT PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2 THEN FILL/DEAMPLIFY
   SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES GREAT LAKES REGION DURING DAY-3.  ASSOCIATED
   SFC FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE EWD OVER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH TRAILING
   PORTION BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX.  SEVERAL PROGS
   INDICATE WEAK SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SUBTROPICAL N-CENTRAL PACIFIC --  MAY MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS NWRN MEX AND WRN TX...THROUGH LARGER SCALE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND
   IN WAKE OF LOW MOVING OVER GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...
   BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 31/12Z...FROM
   NEAR LM SWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA TO ARKLATEX REGION.  NARROW
   CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
   DURING MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SFC HEATING...BOOSTING SBCAPE AND
   AIDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.  DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE...PARTICULARLY FROM TN NWD UNDER
   STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW GRADIENTS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
   AFTER ABOUT 01/00Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER TRAJECTORIES.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING INVOF TRAILING
   FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG AND E OF ITS INTERSECTION WITH DRYLINE.  SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY LIKELIHOOD OF STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
   RATES...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   NEAR FRONT.  EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
   FLOW AND MRGL MIDLEVEL WINDS...BENEATH SYNOPTIC RIDGING.  SRN STREAM
   PERTURBATION MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AS WELL
   AS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR TRIPLE POINT. 
   CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPORTED AFTER DARK BY FAVORABLY MOIST AND
   STRENGTHENING LLJ...DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS
   BEHIND SYNOPTIC RIDGE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/29/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z