May 10, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed May 10 07:29:37 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060510 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060510 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 100727
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
   COUNTRY ON FRI.  UPSTREAM...AN IMPULSE TOPPING THE ROCKIES UPPER
   RIDGE WILL DIG SEWD ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN.  AHEAD OF THIS
   DISTURBANCE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SLY AND ADVECT A MODIFIED
   GULF AIR MASS NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.  FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT
   WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA AND THE NERN
   GULF BASIN.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   WEAK WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER IMPULSE
   WILL MAXIMIZE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FRI AFTN/NIGHT FROM PARTS OF KS
   SEWD ACROSS NERN OK AND AR.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
   MEAGER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS.  GIVEN THAT MEDIUM
   RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AT LEAST
   LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEEM WARRANTED.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/10/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z