May 10, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Wed May 10 07:29:37 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 100727 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI. UPSTREAM...AN IMPULSE TOPPING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE WILL DIG SEWD ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SLY AND ADVECT A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA AND THE NERN GULF BASIN. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... WEAK WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER IMPULSE WILL MAXIMIZE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FRI AFTN/NIGHT FROM PARTS OF KS SEWD ACROSS NERN OK AND AR. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS. GIVEN THAT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEEM WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 05/10/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |