SPC AC 290756
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES NWD INTO WRN CANADA WHICH WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NRN UNITED STATES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD INITIALLY TRACK
E TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONAL FLOW...AND THEN TURN ESEWD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY AS THIS PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. THE SRN EXTENT
OF THIS FRONT INTO THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE START OF DAY 3...ONE OR TWO MCS/S SHOULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS/OK. NAM AND PARALLEL NAM SUGGEST
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WRN MOST MCS SHOULD MOVE SSWWD INTO
WRN TX AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN NM AND CO. AIR MASS
EXTENDING FROM W TX/ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS THESE STORMS MOVE SEWD WITHIN
INCREASING WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND SPREAD INTO THE DOWNSTREAM
INSTABILITY AXIS. ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE WNWLY MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRENGTHENING SELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY SUPPORT AN MCS OR TWO MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO NERN MO...
SIMILAR TO DAY 2...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS INSTABILITY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR THE AIR MASS TO BE OVERTURNED BY DAY 2 CONVECTION. HOWEVER...
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGING FROM
20-25 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THUS...THIS
OUTLOOK WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.
..PETERS.. 05/29/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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