Jun 12, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 12 07:33:38 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060612 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060612 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 120731
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   PACIFIC NW TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING
   THE DAY3 PERIOD SHUNTING DOMINANT PLAINS RIDGE EWD TOWARD THE NRN MS
   VALLEY.  AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE LEE
   OF THE NRN ROCKIES OVER THE PLAINS OF MT.  WITH DEEPENING SWLY FLOW
   ACROSS THE SRN MT MOUNTAINS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD
   OCCUR NEAR SFC WIND SHIFT ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BIMODAL
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE...THE FIRST ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS BENEATH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH.  ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL
   STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM
   ADVECTION ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS.  THIS SECONDARY
   DEVELOPMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE
   AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AIRMASS TO BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED. ANY STORMS
   THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN AND WRN ND.  SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH MCS EVOLUTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY MID EVENING
   AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/12/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z