SPC AC 020653
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD THROUGH ERN CANADA
DURING THE PERIOD WITH RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL/NRN QUEBEC WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND...WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /35-50 KTS IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES...WHERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING STRUCTURES
AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. FARTHER W INTO THE OH VALLEY...DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE COMPARABLY WEAKER /30-35 KTS/...THOUGH STILL
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
...PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE SEWD OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO FOCUS
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL...THE LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
..MEAD.. 07/02/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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