Jul 10, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 10 07:31:36 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060710 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060710 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 100729
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES
   FROM THE PACIFIC NW NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO NERN CANADA...BUT
   DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND/OR AMPLIFICATION OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGHS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NERN
   STATES.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
   ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN MT INTO SRN
   CANADA ON DAY 3...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
   EVENING/NIGHT FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MAINLY ND.  THE
   MODEL DIFFERENCES AFFECT THE TIMING OF A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AS
   IT MOVES EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS EITHER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PER NAM
   OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER GFS.  DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES FOR
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS INCLUDING THE
   SREF AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS
   MAINLY ND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THUS...HAVE FORECAST A LOW PROBABILITY
   FOR SEVERE INTO ND.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM ERN CO ACROSS KS
   ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
   THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
   FEATURE AND THE RESULTANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION ANYWHERE FROM ERN CO TO ACROSS KS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT
   INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EWD TO NY/MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   THE MODEL SPREAD EXPECTED DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH THE
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
   GREATER INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM THE OH VALLEY
   INTO NY/PA REGION...THE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST WLY
   MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/10/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z