SPC AC 100729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO NERN CANADA...BUT
DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND/OR AMPLIFICATION OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NERN
STATES.
...NRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN MT INTO SRN
CANADA ON DAY 3...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MAINLY ND. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AFFECT THE TIMING OF A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS EITHER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PER NAM
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER GFS. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS INCLUDING THE
SREF AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS
MAINLY ND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE FORECAST A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR SEVERE INTO ND.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM ERN CO ACROSS KS
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE DAY 3 PERIOD. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE RESULTANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ANYWHERE FROM ERN CO TO ACROSS KS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EWD TO NY/MID ATLANTIC REGION...
THE MODEL SPREAD EXPECTED DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
GREATER INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO NY/PA REGION...THE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST WLY
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..PETERS.. 07/10/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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