SPC AC 190733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA
INTO THE NCNTRL U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD FORCING A COLD FRONT
INTO MN...SWWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COINCIDE WITH WEAKLY CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PROFILES WILL VEER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HEIGHT...WHILE MID
LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL BE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT. ONE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
BE THE MEAGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW LEVEL
SLY INFLOW WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF INTEREST. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO CONTINUE MUCH BEYOND 03Z DUE TO WEAK
FORCING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECTED COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 08/19/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
|
