SPC AC 290720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CST SUN OCT 29 2006
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE PIVOTING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES. AND...A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AS A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN IMPULSE LIFTS
THROUGH ONTARIO...A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO
ADVANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE
FRONT MAY SLOW OR STALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
U.S./NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. WITH INHIBITION WEAKENED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...THE BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS EVEN SUGGEST MIXED
LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.
BUT...WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND GENERALLY
WEAK...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS MINIMAL.
..KERR.. 10/29/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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