SPC AC 300820
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST MON OCT 30 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS GENERALLY PROGGED
TO BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AS THIS OCCURS...A
LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BENEATH CONFLUENT REGIME INTO
TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DEEPER COLD AIR MAY NOT
REACH THE GULF COAST BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ADVANCING INTO/THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THIS WILL IMPACT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. BUT...MOST GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES A RELATIVELY LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
INLAND AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHERE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 10/30/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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