SPC AC 221958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST MON JAN 22 2007
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED SYNOPTIC TROUGH -- FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS GREAT
LAKES TO NWRN MEX -- DOMINATED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. PRONOUNCED
CYCLONE ALOFT...IN BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CUT-OFF FROM PREVAILING FLOW AND MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS
NWRN MEX. WSWLY SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE FROM BASE OF THAT
CYCLONE ENEWD ACROSS NRN GULF...SRN GA AND NRN FL. AT SFC...COLD
FRONT IS FCST TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD.
...CENTRAL FL...
LINE OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE W-CENTRAL FL COAST SHOULD MOVE INLAND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL/DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
IN FOREGOING HEATED AIR MASS OVER PENINSULA...S OF SFC FRONT
BECAUSE OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW IDEAL ICING LEVELS FOR GENERATING CG LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE LAYER
MAY BE ATTAINED FOR TSTMS AS LONG AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 80
F...FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALREADY MRGL TSTM
PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT GEN THUNDER
OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS.. 01/22/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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