Feb 10, 2007 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 10 16:34:10 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070210 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070210 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070210 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070210 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 101630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD CNTRL/ERN TROUGH WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE E
   PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.  THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD DEAMPLIFY
   SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES E INTO WRN U.S. RIDGE.  IN THE SRN STREAM...
   WATER VAPOR DATA SHOW UPR IMPULSE OVER NE MEXICO CONTINUING SLOWLY
   EWD.
   
   ...CA/SW ORE...
   POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA
   AND PERHAPS SW ORE THIS EVENING AS POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW
   STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF PACIFIC TROUGH.  THUNDER
   MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ARRIVAL OF MAIN VORT /NOW NEARING 35N - 134W/
   EARLY SUNDAY.  WITH LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION LIMITED BY UNFAVORABLE
   TIME OF DAY...ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
   LIMITED.
   
   ...FAR S TX...
   MOST OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDER ON NRN FRINGE OF
   MEXICAN IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 02/10/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z