Mar 1, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 1 01:00:18 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070301 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070301 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070301 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070301 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 010055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SE
   KANSAS...SW AND CNTRL MISSOURI...NE ARKANSAS AND ERN OK...FOR THE
   ONSET OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE RISK
   FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/LWR MO AND
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
   GULF STATES....
   
   WITHIN A BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
   AND CENTRAL U.S...AN INTENSE CYCLONIC WESTERLY MID/UPPER JET
   CORE...IN EXCESS OF 100 KT AT 500 MB...IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY REGION
   OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.
   
   MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD
   OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE 03-06Z
   TIME FRAME...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY THE END OF
   THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER
   STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...WHICH WILL AID MOISTURE
   RETURN NORTHWARD THROUGH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ABOVE WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW.  THIS FRONT EXTENDS
   ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL
   PROBABLY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL COULD BECOME COMMON IN STRONGEST
   CELLS NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY TEND TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
   THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI/CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
   
   IN THE WARM SECTOR..SOUTH OF FRONT THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU...LACK
   OF OPTIMAL TIMING WITH REGARD TO DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WILL BE
   COMPENSATED FOR BY RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE 55-60F
   DEGREE RANGE.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000
   J/KG.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN LOWER/ MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   CAPPING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE
   CYCLONE AND DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT
   LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
   FEW SUPERCELLS ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE.  GIVEN STRONG
   CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH VIGOROUS UPPER
   JET...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS RELATIVELY HIGH
   TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...
   CAPPING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO
   BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  BUT...MODELS APPEAR TO
   SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING STORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN FLORIDA...PERHAPS
   AIDED BY IMPULSE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS. 
   INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS BASED NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/01/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z