Mar 1, 2007 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 1 20:10:20 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting.   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20070301 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070301 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070301 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070301 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 012006
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
   MS...AL...GA...AND NWRN FL...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK OVER
   SERN LA...ERN MS...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...WRN KY...PARTS OF ERN
   IL...WRN INDIANA...GA/SC TO CENTRAL FL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO EVOLVE EWD FROM THE
   LOWER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
   THROUGH TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO OH/
   TN VALLEYS...WHILE CENTER OF UPPER LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY.  STRONG WIND FIELDS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW /WSWLY MID/UPPER
   LEVELS ATOP SLY LLJ/ ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD AND CONTINUING TO
   PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
   THE EVOLVING WARM SECTOR.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER
   CENTRAL IA AND ATTENDANT TO CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
   OCCLUDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS NNE TOWARD SWRN WI.
   TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND
   CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   TO NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY AND EAST TO SRN/MID ATLANTIC
   STATES...
   
   18Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SERN STATES INDICATED
   WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO MODIFY PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
   WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AIR MASS TO UNDERGO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EWD
   FROM MS/AL TO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES.  STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOTH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND
   LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   PRODUCING LONG-LIVED AND POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/SRN MS AND SERN LA EWD TO GA AND NRN FL.  THIS THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 18Z
   JAX SOUNDING SHOWED LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENING AS WIND FIELDS
   INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN LARGER
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
   
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LESS WITH NRN EXTENT INTO LOWER OH
   VALLEY...THE RETURN OF LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THIS REGION
   BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS.  DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.
   
   SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT MOVING
   TOWARD THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING EWD
   ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT.  RAPID MOISTURE RETURN AND
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS A 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
   THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
   DELMARVA.  ALTHOUGH MLCAPE WILL BE MODEST /250-500 J/ KG/ FROM NC
   NWD...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS INTO THE SRN GREAT
   LAKES REGION...DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY THIS FAR NORTH.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/01/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z