Mar 2, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 2 00:58:15 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting.   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20070302 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070302 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070302 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070302 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 020053
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   ERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING PARTS OF
   ERN ALABAMA...PARTS OF EXTREME NRN FLORIDA...MUCH OF GEORGIA/SOUTH
   CAROLINA  AND PARTS OF SE NC....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES...MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
   STATES....
   
   EXIT REGION OF 150-170 KT HIGH LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE
   ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO/THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES TONIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN INTENSE /60-80+ KT AT 850 MB/ SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...INTO THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING COLD WEDGE TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 
   MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
   VIRGINIA BY 06-09Z...BEFORE WAVE TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  MEANWHILE...DEEP...INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED
   SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   ...WITH TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES
   OF THE APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST AND SLOWLY MOISTENING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID
   60S ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ALABAMA INTO THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF
   GEORGIA...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND.  THIS IS SUPPORTING AT
   LEAST VERY WEAK NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN CONTINUING
   PRESENCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ROOTED WITHIN THIS LAYER...TORNADO
   POTENTIAL SEEMS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
    AND WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAINING LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED
   BENEATH STRONG/DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...RISK OF ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADOES CONTINUES.
   
   EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO A MORE
   ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE TO THE LEE
   OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. 
   AND...THIS COULD AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF VERY HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO
   THE SURFACE...CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG/DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN
   DELMARVA PENINSULA.  TENDENCY MAY BE FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES TO
   BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME ACROSS THE MIDDLE/SOUTHERN
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BUT SHEAR BENEATH LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STILL
   BE EXTREME.  AND...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING
   ABOVE 60F...CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.
   
   **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
   SEVERE THREATS...PLEASE LOOK FOR LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
   AND SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/02/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z