SPC AC 021615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2007
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL...
...SOUTHEAST...
SEVERE THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
LEADING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL WHERE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW SWD CRAWL BEFORE STALLING FROM NEAR/NORTH OF TBW TO NORTH OF
DAB THIS AFTERNOON /REFERENCE SWOMCD 259/. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S F WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S F. THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS AND MAINTAIN ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SWLY AND ALLOW H7 THERMAL RIDGE TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BUILD INVERSION LAYER AROUND H7 AND
LIMIT CAPE. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE MLCAPE AND VERY LITTLE INHIBITION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEAR THE FRONT AND INVOF LOCAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODULATED BY
VEERING SURFACE WINDS TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR/SRH IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER
CORES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..EVANS/SCHNEIDER.. 03/02/2007
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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