SPC AC 131940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF TX AND
EXTREME SRN OK...
...TX/EXTREME SRN OK...
SATL SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER FAR W TX WAS BEGINNING TO
EJECT EWD AT MID-AFTN. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEGUN TO
EDGE EWD ACCORDINGLY PER 18Z DRT RAOB...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF
1000-1800 J/KG OVER A SIZABLE SWATH OF SWRN THRU NCNTRL TX AND SRN
OK. FARTHER E ACROSS E TX...SFC RIDGING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
NEUTRALIZATION IN WAKE OF MORNING PCPN HAVE SLOWED AFTN
DESTABILIZATION.
DELINEATING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA WILL
REMAIN DIFFICULT. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT AND LEADING EDGE OF A DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY FOCUS THE STRONGEST TSTMS ACROSS SWRN
TX TO THE HILL COUNTRY NWD INTO EXTREME SRN OK THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HERE...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BENEATH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...BUT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL AND ISOLD SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NRN EDGE
OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG/S OF THE RED RVR
VLY...THOUGH ISOLD SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT SRN OK.
FARTHER E AND S...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
ALONG NRN EDGE OF MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. NRN PART OF
THIS COMPLEX LIKELY CONSISTS OF ELEVATED STORM CORES ROOTED ATOP THE
RESIDUAL COLD DOME...BUT TSTMS EVOLVING FROM E OF KCOT EWD TO KVCT
ARE SFC-BASED. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY STEEPEN FARTHER E
WITH TIME AND WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS
WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS WEAK AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
OVERNIGHT...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER TX COAST WITH ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD FAVOR SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST.
..RACY.. 03/13/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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