SPC AC 141602
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN
MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
OH...
...CENTRAL TX GULF COAST...
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TX TODAY...WITH POCKET OF COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ORGANIZED NOCTURNAL MCS
AFFECTED MUCH OF CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...SCOURING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
AND STABILIZING REGION. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN WAKE OF MCS...COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ARE RESULTING IN SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL BETWEEN VCT AND HOU THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF
THIS ACTIVITY...WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK
CAP AND LEAD TO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD ALSO SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
REMNANTS OF DECAYING MCS ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
LA/MS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF MCS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
AIR MASS AND LEAD TO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER CELLS.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IA/IL/MI THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG/. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHERN IND/OH. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS
NORTHEAST OH OR NORTHWEST PA BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
..HART/GUYER.. 03/14/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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