SPC AC 231224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NM...SWRN
AND W-CENTRAL TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ACTIVE PERIOD ON TAP ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPPER LOW OVER NRN GULF
OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EWD AND THEN EJECTS NEWD OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT HAS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS
MORNING LEAVING THE HIGH PLAINS OF SRN/ERN NM AND WRN TX WITHIN MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD
AID IN SURFACE HEATING TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSES THIS MORNING
INDICATE WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR ELP WHICH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS ERN NM TO NEAR THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE
SSELY SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE EAST OF THESE FEATURES AS HEIGHTS FALL
ALOFT ACROSS NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR 60F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO SWRN/W-CENTRAL TX AND SERN/E-CENTRAL NM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN BREAKING UP. NAMKF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS
AREA. STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...SUPPORTING A MULTITUDE OF
STORM STRUCTURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE HAIL HAS ALREADY ACCOMPANIED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR SERN NM...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS INTO NERN NM/TX
PANHANDLE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO/SRN NM THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING
NEWD IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...LIKELY SPLITTING...ALONG WITH
ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS. INITIAL STORMS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED BY
THE AFTERNOON. MORE CONCENTRATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF A LARGE
MCC/MCS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH WILL BE QUITE LARGE/ WILL
BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS WEAKER FLOW AROUND H85 LIMITS LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS EMANATING FROM RIGHT
SPLITS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE TORNADOES WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS
DEVIANT MOTIONS INCREASE LOW LEVEL SRH. GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
ALSO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED LATER TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREATS C0ULD PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK AS ONE OR MORE
MCSS SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MORE OF WRN TX AND THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
FARTHER NORTH...A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NERN CO...KS AND SRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
SERN CO DURING THE PERIOD...ALONG WRN EXTENT OF STALLED SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN KS THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...AND EAST OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST FOR LATE MARCH WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S. HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NRN CO/FAR SRN WY AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
OTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EWD ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SLY LLJ
TONIGHT. MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL.
..EVANS/GUYER.. 03/23/2007
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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