Mar 28, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 28 01:02:14 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070328 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070328 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070328 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070328 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 280058
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2007
   
   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS LA/AR
   THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
   AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NWRN LA AND NERN AR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH LOWER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
   BASED ON EVENING RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE DATA. A BELT OF STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT COINCIDENT WITH MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND
   DYNAMIC ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE/LONGER-LIVED
   ROTATING STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA AND MUCH OF SERN AR. A FEW OF
   THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT NEWD WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND INTO WRN TN
   AND NWRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
   AREA AND A SLGT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS EVENING.
   
   ...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
   FROM SCNTRL MT SSEWD ACROSS WY AND INTO PARTS OF CO OVERNIGHT...
   SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY POTENT
   DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS
   THE GREAT BASIN. INTENSE DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE IN
   THE EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN VERY STEEP
   DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ATOP WARM BUT MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS. LOW
   LEVEL OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS
   EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND STRONG FORCING NEAR DEEPENING LEE-SIDE
   CYCLONE...WILL ALL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT TSTMS. WHILE A
   COUPLE OF CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL...LATEST TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS WY/MY SUGGEST HIGHER
   SEVERE PROBABILITY MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/28/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z