SPC AC 300042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO WEST TX...
...PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
COMPLEX MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO ERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS EVOLVED WITHIN STRONGEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...ALONG ERN FRINGE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH. IN THE ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...IT APPEARS LLJ WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INFLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF MCS CLUSTERS...WITH
SLOW EWD PROPAGATION INTO THE ARKLATEX...INTO SWRN MO.
ADDITIONALLY...MVC HAS EVOLVED WITHIN SRN MOST PORTION OF PRECIP
SHIELD INVOF NAVARRO COUNTY TX. THIS MAY ENHANCE LOCALIZED SEVERE
THREAT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE TYR REGION BEFORE SLOWLY
WEAKENING TOWARDS SHV EAST OF THE LLJ AXIS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
YET OCCUR WITH STRONGER ROTATIONAL COUPLETS.
FARTHER WEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY EVOLVED ALONG DRY LINE FROM THE KS/OK BORDER...ARCING NWWD
TO GRANT COUNTY NEB. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO GAIN INTENSITY
DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. IN THE ABSENCE
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH
ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE ABSENCE OF SUSTAINED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
...WEST TX...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS INTO NRN MEXICO AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...ASCENT SHOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z. SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL IS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HERE.
..DARROW.. 03/30/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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