SPC AC 060045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT THU APR 05 2007
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WHICH INITIATED ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SEA
BREEZE APPEARED TO EXHIBIT WEAK ROTATION AS IT PROGRESSED OFF
COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF MIAMI. ACTIVITY IS NOW WEAKENING WELL
OFFSHORE...BUT MORE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS WHERE SEA
BREEZE HAS ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH WESTERLY MID/UPPER JET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT LIMITED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH FURTHER... WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY.
...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AND...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR MARFA BETWEEN NOW AND 06/03Z...AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND...
PERHAPS...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU REGION. IF THIS
OCCURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
NEAR 80F.
...CALIFORNIA...
AIDED BY A WEAKLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME NORTHEAST OF
A CLOSED LOW APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06/03-04Z...
MAINLY WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
..KERR.. 04/06/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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