SPC AC 091253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON APR 09 2007
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DEAMPLIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS BROAD...SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ZONAL FLOW EVOLVES S OF CNTRL
CANADIAN BLOCK. THREE FEATURES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS
DOMINATE THE TSTM FCST THIS PERIOD. THESE INCLUDE /1/ WEAK SYSTEM
NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO.../2/ STRONGER IMPULSE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND /3/ JET STREAK OVER WA/ORE.
THE PAC NW TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UT
CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
TX...WHILE THE NWRN MEXICO FEATURE SHOULD CROSS TX DURING THE DAY
AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VLY 12Z TUESDAY.
...SE TX TO CNTRL GULF CST...
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING NRN MEXICO WILL PULL A PLUME
OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR E ACROSS S TX AND THE NRN GULF LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UVV
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS...THOUGH DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACTIVITY NOW FORMING N OF STALLED
FRONT OVER THE E CNTRL GULF SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AS
WIND/INSTABILITY SETUP LARGELY FAVORS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT.
...ERN WA/NERN ORE INTO NRN RCKYS...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...LIKELY WILL SUPPORT SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION FROM ERN WA/ORE INTO THE NRN RCKYS. THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT BEST AREA FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/THUNDER WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN ID/WRN MT AND NW WY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.
...FOUR CORNERS TO W TX/OK...
SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY COMPACT UPR SYSTEM
TRACKING ESE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY SCTD ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM
AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME OVERSPREADS RESIDUAL COOL DOME OVER
PARTS OF TX AND OK.
..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/09/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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