SPC AC 161958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL ROCKIES...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGIN OF UT/CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE ROBUST IN
NATURE...PARTICULARLY DUE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 250-500J/KG WHERE DEEPEST ASCENT/MOISTENING
IS OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST THINKING IS HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY MOST OF THE STRONGER CORES...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD BE
SUB-TO-MARGINALLY SEVERE IN NATURE. STRONG DIURNAL INFLUENCES
SHOULD MODULATE STRENGTH OF THESE UPDRAFTS...THUS INTENSITIES SHOULD
WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
DOWNSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS REGION LATER TONIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EWD-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM. RECOVERING/MODIFYING WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX
WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY/SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA.
..DARROW.. 04/16/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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