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May 6, 2007 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook |
Updated: Sun May 6 16:54:15 UTC 2007 |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006). |
Public Severe Weather Outlook |
The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south central plains this afternoon and tonight....
Please read the latest public
statement about this event.
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Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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SPC AC 061627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN AND WRN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM ND TO
CENTRAL TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...
...PLAINS...
LARGE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A CUT OFF LOW
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLIES INCREASE ACROSS SRN CANADA. NRN
PORTION OF ROCKIES TROUGH SHEARS NEWD INTO STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SRN
CANADA. WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. HAS
EXHAUSTED MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN PLACE
SATURDAY.
PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD TO SWRN OK AND
THEN TX BIG BEND. WITH TROUGH REMAINING OVER SRN ROCKIES AND AN
IMPULSE ROTATING NNEWD INTO HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS AND POSSIBLY
REDEVELOP WWD THIS AFTERNOON TX PORTION.
AIR MASS IN WARM SECTOR E OF BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY
CAPPED FROM THE RED RIVER N WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG COMMON. WITH
30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING IN WARM SECTOR...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS AND WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR TORNADOS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.
GIVEN THE ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND THE WEAK CAP THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON DEGREE OF AIRMASS RECOVERY THAT CAN TAKE PLACE TO THE
W AND N ACROSS KS/TX PANHANDLE. THUS FOCUS FOR MDT WILL BE VICINITY
CURRENT STORMS ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO ND
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EWD
ACROSS SD/NE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRECEDES THE
FRONT...WITH A MORE LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE DUE TO
RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAYS ACTIVITY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
WIND AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH MULTICELL STORMS WITH MLCAPES
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG.
ENHANCED SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NWD THRU
DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF
ND. THIS WILL INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
...FL...
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM SRN GA DOWN THE FL PENINSULA.
FULL SUNSHINE AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER FLOW
PARALLEL TO SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND SUPPORT THE RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.
..HALES/GUYER.. 05/06/2007
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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