May 6, 2007 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 6 16:54:15 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south central plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20070506 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070506 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070506 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070506 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 061627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN AND WRN
   OKLAHOMA...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM ND TO
   CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...PLAINS...
   LARGE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A CUT OFF LOW
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLIES INCREASE ACROSS SRN CANADA. NRN
   PORTION OF ROCKIES TROUGH SHEARS NEWD INTO STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SRN
   CANADA. WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. HAS
   EXHAUSTED MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY THAT WAS IN PLACE
   SATURDAY.
   
   PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD TO SWRN OK AND
   THEN TX BIG BEND.  WITH TROUGH REMAINING OVER SRN ROCKIES AND AN
   IMPULSE ROTATING NNEWD INTO HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
   BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS AND POSSIBLY
   REDEVELOP WWD THIS AFTERNOON TX PORTION.
   
   AIR MASS IN WARM SECTOR E OF BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY
   CAPPED FROM THE RED RIVER N WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG COMMON. WITH
   30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING IN WARM SECTOR...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS AND WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR TORNADOS AND VERY LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   GIVEN THE ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND THE WEAK CAP THERE IS
   UNCERTAINTY ON DEGREE OF AIRMASS RECOVERY THAT CAN TAKE PLACE TO THE
   W AND N ACROSS KS/TX PANHANDLE.  THUS FOCUS FOR MDT WILL BE VICINITY
   CURRENT STORMS ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS.
   
   THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO ND
    WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EWD
   ACROSS SD/NE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRECEDES THE 
   FRONT...WITH A MORE LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE DUE TO
   RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAYS ACTIVITY.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE 
   WIND AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH MULTICELL STORMS WITH MLCAPES
   GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   
   ENHANCED SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NWD THRU
   DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF
   ND. THIS WILL INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ...FL...
   NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM SRN GA DOWN THE FL PENINSULA.
    FULL SUNSHINE AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
   WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  DEEP LAYER FLOW
   PARALLEL TO SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
   AND SUPPORT THE RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..HALES/GUYER.. 05/06/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z