May 8, 2007 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 8 06:02:16 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070508 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070508 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070508 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070508 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 080557
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
   SWRN TX...
   
   ...CNTRL/SWRN TX...
   SRN PART OF THE PERSISTENT WRN STATES TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   AND BEGIN SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST TUE/TUE NIGHT.  A SUBTLE LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER W TX...WILL LIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN EARLY
   TUE.  IN ITS WAKE...A FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION
   TUE MORNING.  REMNANT INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL EXIST NEWD FROM
   THERE INTO NCNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   RECENT MCS ACTIVITY HAS LEFT A COMPLICATED ARRAY OF BOUNDARIES AND
   ALSO NEUTRALIZED LAPSE RATES ALOFT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SWRN TX
   DURING THE PAST 24-HRS.  GIVEN THAT UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS YET TO EJECT
   NEWD...PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE/MAINTAIN AN
   ELY LOW-LEVEL FETCH OF MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS ALONG/S OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH.
   
   STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
   VLY WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF A HEAT LOW OVER NERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
   MOIST ELY FLOW FROM SCNTRL TX WWD.  POCKETS OF HEATING/MODEST
   INSTABILITY COULD ALSO FORM IN THE BIG BEND...STOCKTON PLATEAU
   REGIONS.  TSTMS WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR THESE REGIONS DURING PEAK
   HEATING...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
   VLY.  OTHERWISE...STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE
   INVERTED TROUGH AXIS INTO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NCNTRL
   TX...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS SCENARIO.
   
   THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN...40-50 KTS OF SWLY H5
   FLOW ATOP THE ELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE.  MOST
   RIGOROUS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LAUNCH OFF THE MEXICAN AND SWRN TX
   MOUNTAINS AND MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF
   SWRN/SCNTRL TX DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ...ARKLATEX REGION NWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
   BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR
   ANOTHER FOCUSED ZONE OF TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE FROM IL SWWD ACROSS
   THE MID-SOUTH INTO PARTS OF AR AND LA.  AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
   BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SFC HEATING AND MLCAPES WILL RANGE 1500-2000
   J/KG.  THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER BELT OF SWLY
   FLOW ALOFT LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR ISOLD HAIL AND PERHAPS HIGH WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. 
   ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A DECREASING TREND
   00-03Z.
   
   ..RACY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z