SPC AC 162013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF VA AND THE DELMARVA....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SD SEWD INTO PARTS OF
WI/IL....
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
A LOW OVER W CENTRAL SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN THEN SSEWD INTO NERN MO.
A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SRN MD INTO SERN KY.
...PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SWWD FROM
CENTRAL VA INTO EXTREME NERN TN. AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN
VA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SFC DATA INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER
SERN VA ATTM COMPARED TO WHAT THE RUC IS INDICATING...THUS A STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE. GIVEN THAT...WOULD EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THRU THIS EVENING.
...ERN SD SEWD INTO PARTS OF WI/IL...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD INTO MN ATTM. AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION TO 40-50 KT WITH
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3KM. IMPRESSIVE ALSO IS THE
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 TO 8.5C/KM. THUS...HAVE ADDED
PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO PARTS OF MN
AND IA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT
GIVEN THE SHEAR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.
...GULF COAST FROM LA EWD INTO NRN FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM S TX THRU LA..AND
FROM SRN MS INTO THE WST COAST OF FL AND NRN FL. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN WARM...VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND FOCUSING
ON OUTFLOW FROM GULF OF MEXICO COMPLEX. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MCV FEATURE OVER W CENTRAL LA. MAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE
REGIONS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS.
...NRN PLATEAU REGION...
MID/UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NEWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF STRONG
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NERN NV INTO W CENTRAL UT. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V PROFILES. THUS...MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DRY MICROBURSTS.
..MCCARTHY.. 07/16/2007
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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