SPC AC 240551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN/SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION -- AND AREAS OF ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- ARE FORECAST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHILE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
SERN STATES.
...MT SWD INTO AZ...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MT SWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO AZ...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE
ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED FLOW AT MID
LEVELS ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH -- PARTICULARLY NEAR
SUBTLE/EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES -- MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED
CELLS WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH A SLIGHTLY
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST OVER PARTS OF
MT/ID...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AZ...ATTM THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.
...SRN PLAINS...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF TX AND INTO WRN OK/THE PANHANDLES...AS ENHANCED /AROUND 25 KT/
NELY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THIS REGION. WHILE OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT A LOCAL
THREAT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
...FL...
MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY...SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED
WSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS -- S OF OH VALLEY UPPER LOW -- MAY SUPPORT
A STRONGER CELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
..GOSS/LEVIT.. 07/24/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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