Aug 3, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 3 01:00:17 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070803 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070803 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070803 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070803 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 030055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
   
   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO FRONT RANGE...
   ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM NM/AZ TO UT/CO/WY
   TONIGHT WHERE DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING BENEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN A MOIST BUT
   GENERALLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND
   DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV ROTATING
   AROUND THE LARGE SCALE HIGH...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT AND
   SHEAR FROM UT ACROSS WY/CO. IN ADDITION...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
   THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WAS PROMOTING/SUSTAINING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN WY AND CO FRONT RANGE ATTM. A FEW STORMS IN
   THESE AREAS MAY PERSIST GIVEN LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE
   AIR...AND LIFT/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE MCV. LATEST INDICATIONS APPEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A FEW OF
   THE MORE ROBUST/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ...AL/FL GULF COAST/GA...
   A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NERN GULF COAST WHERE A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL
   MAINTAIN MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AND FOCUSED ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
   FL AND SRN GA TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW BOTH
   FORECAST THE CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPING NEWD AND INLAND ACROSS
   THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COINCIDENT INCREASE IN DEEP
   CONVECTION. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
   APPEAR TOO LIMITED/WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...
   A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO KS. POCKETS OF
   STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH VERY ISOLATED AND
   POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS OCCURRING FROM THE KS/MO BORDER TO SWRN IA
   TO LAKE MI ATTM. DESPITE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY STRONGER
   CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR ISOLATED STORMS... LIMITED
   LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...AND WEAK SHEAR...ARE
   EXPECTED TO RESTRICT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF
   TONIGHT. STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT
   MAY MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD WRN NY
   THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS TO TN/KY...
   SUMMERTIME PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SRN U.S. WITH TYPICALLY 
   WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER AN EXTENSIVE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
   EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
   FORCING...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FROM TX TO TN/KY. MOST
   OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
   WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/03/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z