SPC AC 090049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2007
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND
MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...
...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SWRN
IA/NWRN MO/SERN NEB/NERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
SUPPORT IN THE LARGE SCALE AS BOTH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS IA/MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDS ACROSS NRN MO INTO WCNTRL IL JUST SOUTH OF WIND
SHIFT. IT APPEARS LLJ WILL INCREASE INTO NCNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN MCS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING FROM TOP
STRONGLY SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THE UPSTREAM/SWRN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT WHERE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH. IF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAN EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY LARGER
BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS.
...ERN DAKOTAS...
00Z SOUNDING FROM ABR APPEARS TO HAVE SAMPLED QUALITY AIR MASS THAT
IS FEEDING ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS ERN SD INTO SERN ND. A
SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS STORM
INFLOW IS MAINLY ACROSS SD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...SEWD
STORM MOTIONS AND QUITE STABLE AIR MASS OVER MN/NRN IA WILL HINDER
THIS ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH MUCH INTENSITY.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
...OH VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING QUICKLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY
HANCOCK COUNTY OH. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS SERN
IND. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 08/09/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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