Sep 12, 2007 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 12 15:48:10 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070912 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070912 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070912 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070912 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 121543
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007
   
   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ..SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS PERIOD AS
   SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE GRT LKS YESTERDAY CONTINUES NE TO LABRADOR
   AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS AMPLIFIES SE
   INTO ND/MB.  FARTHER S...VORT MAX NOW OVER SW CO AS NOTED ON W/V
   IMAGERY...SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY SE INTO NRN NM LATER TODAY...AND INTO W
   TX TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
   DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS E FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MN/WRN
   SWRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.  STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SW
   FROM LOW WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  IN THE NWRN
   GULF...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD AND
   STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT ON THE UPPER TX
   COAST.
   
   ...SRN HI PLNS...
   LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY IN
   RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF AMPLIFYING CANADIAN
   UPR IMPULSE.  A DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
   TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY INCREASING TO 500-1000
   J/KG OVER ERN NM AND SE CO.  SFC HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   CO UPR VORT SHOULD FOSTER TERRAIN-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   CNTRL NM BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS
   FORMING A BIT LATER ALONG LEE TROUGH.
   
   BELT OF 20-25 KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF CO VORT WILL
   ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...BUT DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. 
   NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LYR...SIZABLE
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME CLUSTERING OF
   ACTIVITY...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   AND/OR BRIEFLY SVR WIND GUSTS E INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLE.  ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE LWR LVLS
   COOL AFTER DARK.
   
   ...MIDDLE/UPR TX GULF CST...
   APPROACH OF TD 9 WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LVL SPEED
   AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST THROUGH
   EARLY THURSDAY.  GIVEN VERY RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT...SETUP COULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
   SHOWERS/STORMS CONTAINING LOW LVL STORM ROTATION.  WITH TROPICAL
   SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO STRONGLY INTENSIFY...OVERALL WIND FIELD
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND ANY TORNADO THREAT POSED SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF
   AND ISOLATED.
   
   ..HALES/BROYLES.. 09/12/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z