SPC AC 280056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL AND S FL...
A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL FL FROM NEAR MELBOURNE
WSWWD TO SOUTH OF ST. PETERSBURG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...00Z RAOB DATA SHOW WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PRESENCE OF A MODEST INVERSION NEAR 700 MB. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...FORCING
THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER REMAINS WEAK...AND WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DECREASING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL AND S FL OVERNIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
...CNTRL AND SRN CA...
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING ATTENDING A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN CA HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN CA. HOWEVER...EVENING RAOB
AND RUC DATA SHOW INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. COVERAGE OF
ANY LIGHTNING THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.
..DIAL.. 10/28/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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