Nov 17, 2007 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 17 05:42:13 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20071117 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20071117 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20071117 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20071117 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 170537
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2007
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   
   POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO WILL
   SHIFT EWD INTO TX LATER TODAY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE TX COAST.  THIS FEATURE IS PARTLY
   RESPONSIBLE FOR MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAVE RESPONDED AND BECOME MORE SELY
   OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BASIN.  LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY
   ALSO SUGGESTS MODIFICATION WHILE SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WRN GULF
   BUOYS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 60S.  IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX SUCH THAT
   NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS SHOULD BECOME POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITHIN
   WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
   30-40KT SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
   SCNTRL/SERN TX.  SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST STORM ROTATION IS
   POSSIBLE.  LATEST THINKING IS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
   SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
   THE LOWER 70S.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL
   COULD BE NOTED WITH STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 11/17/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z