Feb 22, 2007 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 22 20:31:37 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070222 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20070222 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 222029
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CST THU FEB 22 2007
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH THE EXTREME
   ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST
   INTO THE SWRN U.S. FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LEAD
   SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT
   NE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY
   IMPULSE COULD EJECT NE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
   UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
   DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WRN KS
   THROUGH WRN TX AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
   ADVANCE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE FRIDAY NIGHT.
   
   
   ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS...
   
   MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL ADVECT
   NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN
   RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND OVERTAKE
   THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX. NARROW AXIS
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST E OF DRYLINE. BUT...INSTABILITY
   FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   LIMITED DURING THE DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
   ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS AS THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EAST AND OVERLAPS THE
   STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST IN WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
   INITIATION POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE WHERE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF
   THE DAY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND
   POSSIBLY SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN KS. STORM MODE WOULD BE
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LATE AFTERNOON
   INITIATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
   
   OVERNIGHT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE MAIN UPPER
   TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
   MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE. MUCAPE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR
   WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND IN
   ADVANCE OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN
   OK INTO WRN KS AND SPREAD EAST. INITIAL MODE MAY BE
   SUPERCELLULAR...BUT WITH A GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO AN MCS CONTAINING
   MIXED MODES INCLUDING LINES AND SUPERCELLS. THROUGH SOME THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION
   TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE
   EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA.
   
   DIAL/JEWELL
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/22/2007
   
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