May 31, 2007 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 31 07:55:39 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070531 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20070531 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 310753
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER GRAPHIC LINES
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CNTRL STATES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD
   FRIDAY. VORT MAX NOW ROTATING WWD INTO ERN MT ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY
   OF UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THEN EWD INTO BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
   REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
   FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY OR NRN PLAINS SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND SERN
   CO EARLY FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WRN TX NWD INTO
   SWRN KS. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG KS PORTION OF
   FRONT AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY IN
   RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT ATTENDING VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH
   BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. AS LOW LIFTS NE...TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT
   WILL SHIFT SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SRN CA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN TX
   DURING THE DAY.
   
   UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL DRIFT EWD AND MAY APPROACH THE FL
   PENINSULA BY LATE FRIDAY.
   
   
   ...ERN KS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...
   
   FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAINTIES EXIST DUE TO
   LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING STORMS AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD. MCS MAY BE IN
   PROGRESS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OR ERN KS SWD INTO OK WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AXIS OF 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY EXIST IN
   WARM SECTOR...BUT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF
   CLOUDS WHICH WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN VICINITY OF THE MCS. BELIEVE
   BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEATING WILL BE FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE MID MS
   VALLEY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE. DESPITE
   POTENTIAL THERMODYNAMIC LIMITING FACTORS...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. LOW LEVEL
   JET WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW THROUGH ERN KS AND
   INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING EWD ADVANCING
   VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW
   LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS STORMS ADVANCE EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WILL BE STORM MODE
   GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
   MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY
   FRIDAY WITH ANY STORMS OR MCS ACROSS OK. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
   DEEPER LAYER FORCING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THIS REGION. SOME POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS TO
   DESTABILIZE...AND AT LEAST MODEST SLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW COULD SUSTAIN
   THE MCS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
   STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ARE...SOME
   DESTABILIZATION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONT AND SPREAD
   SEWD THROUGH SRN KS AND INTO OK. THREAT IN THIS REGION APPEARS MORE
   CONDITIONAL...BUT IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR THREAT
   WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
   
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX...
   
   PROXIMITY TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR OVER WRN TX. SOME ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP IN
   POST FRONTAL REGION AND ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWD INTO PARTS OF
   NERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SWD
   ADVANCING FRONT OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX AND IN UPSLOPE REGION OF NM
   AND SPREAD SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ACROSS WRN TX. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
   IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NE. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SWRN TX
   WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER UPPER FLOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE SRN STREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE THE MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW...DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
   
   
   
   ...FL...
   
   DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST UPPER LOW OVER NRN GULF PROGRESSES...
   HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. HOWEVER... THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL
   FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.
   WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUE
   TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/31/2007
   
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