SPC AC 030602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/ERN NM INTO TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST.
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THEN NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
...SERN CO/ERN NM INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX...
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
SERN CO/ERN NM INTO WRN AND CENTRAL TX...SW OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH SHOULD LIE FROM SE-NW ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS -- LIKELY TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD
REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY INVOF THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS NEAR VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WITH MODERATE/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
TX...SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS --
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...
WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500 TO 1500
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...DEGREE OF SHEAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...BLACK HILLS...
THOUGH LITTLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS WITHIN DEEP NWLY FLOW...UPSLOPE ON THE NRN/NWRN SLOPES OF THE
BLACK HILLS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH AROUND 500
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...MARGINAL HAIL
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.
...SERN WA/NERN OREGON/PARTS OF NRN ID...
INCREASING/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PAC
NW...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF
SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- WITH
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
..GOSS.. 06/03/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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